国际顶刊｜《英国政治科学杂志》2022年第53卷第2期

01

期 刊 介 绍

British Journal of Political Science（BJPS，《英国政治科学杂志》）是一份基础广泛的杂志，旨在涵盖广泛的国家和专业领域的发展。该刊发表的论文来自政治科学的所有领域（包括政治理论、政治行为、公共政策和国际关系）以及相关学科（社会学、社会心理学、经济学和哲学）。凭借 50 多年来建立的声誉，该刊被广泛认为是其领域内的首要期刊之一。该刊在《科睿唯安 2022 年期刊引用报告》（Clarivate JCR2022）中 JIF=5.0，在 187 种政治科学类（Political Science-SSCI）期刊中排名第 10（Q1）。

02

期刊目录

1. A Double Standard? Gender Bias in Voters’Perceptions of Political Arguments

双重标准？选民对政治论点看法的性别偏见

2. Early-Adulthood Economic Experiences and the Formation of Democratic Support

成年早期的经济经历与民主支持的形成

3. Intergenerational Social Mobility, Political Socialization and Support for the Left under Post-industrial Realignment

后工业调整时期的代际社会流动、政治社会化和对左翼的支持

4. International Influences on the Survival of Territorial Non-state Actors

国际社会对本土非国家行为者生存的影响

5. Irredentism and Institutions

分裂主义和机构

6. Long-Term Change in Conflict Attitudes: A Dynamic Perspective

冲突态度的长期变化：动态视角

7. Measuring Ethnic Inequality: An Assessment of Extant Cross-National Indices

衡量种族不平等：对现有跨国指数的评估

8. Network Competition and Civilian Targeting during Civil Conflict

内战期间的网络竞争与平民目标

9. Of ‘Welfare Queens’ and ‘Poor Carinas’: Social Constructions, Deservingness Messaging and the Mental Health of Welfare Clients

福利皇后 "和 "贫穷的卡里娜"：福利金领取者的社会建构、应得信息和心理健康

10. Political Understanding

政治理解

11. Preaching Politics: How Politicization Undermines Religious Authority in the Middle East

宣扬政治：政治化如何削弱中东的宗教权威

12. Public Demand for Extraterritorial Environmental and Social Public Goods Provision

公众对提供域外环境和社会公益物的需求

13. Residential Integration on Fair Terms for the Disadvantaged

以公平条件让弱势人群融入居住环境

14. Shaping Electoral Outcomes: Intra- and Anti-systemic Violence in Indian Assembly Elections

塑造选举结果：印度议会选举中的内部和反制度暴力

15. The Geography of Democratic Discontent

民主不满情绪的地理分布

16. To Purge or Not to Purge? An Individual-Level Quantitative Analysis of Elite Purges in Dictatorships

肃清还是不肃清？独裁政权中精英清洗的个人层面定量分析

17. Who Deserves European Solidarity? How Recipient Characteristics Shaped Public Support for International Medical and Financial Aid during COVID-19

谁值得欧洲声援？COVID-19 期间受援国特征如何影响公众对国际医疗和财政援助的支持

18. Why Don’t Partisans Sanction Electoral Malpractice?

党派人士为何不制裁选举舞弊行为？

03

摘要译文

01 双重标准？选民对政治论点看法的性别偏见

【题目】

A Double Standard? Gender Bias in Voters’ Perceptions of Political Arguments

【作者】

Lotte Hargrave

【摘要】

政治家使用的方式是否会影响选民对他们的评价，这一点对女性是否比对男性更重要？政治家在与选民沟通时经常使用传闻论据、情感诉求和攻击性攻击。然而，女性政治家被打上了 "下流"、"不人道 "和 "不女性化 "的烙印，这表明这些策略可能会让某些人付出代价。我报告了一项新颖的调查实验，评估选民对政治家沟通风格的看法和评价是否存在偏差。通过操纵政治家的性别和论证风格，我首先评估了政治家在违反基于性别的刻板印象时是否会招致反弹，其次评估了对风格本身的不同看法是否可以解释这种反弹。我发现，风格的使用会对选民如何评价政治家产生重要影响，但这种影响不分性别。这些结果具有重要意义，因为它们表明，女性政治家可能并不需要为了获得选民的积极评价而遵守刻板印象预期的行为。

Do the styles politicians use influence how voters evaluate them, and does this matter more for women than for men? Politicians regularly use anecdotal arguments, emotional appeals and aggressive attacks when communicating with voters. However, that women politicians have been branded as ‘nasty’, ‘inhuman’ and ‘unfeminine’ suggests that these strategies may come at a price for some. I report on a novel survey experiment assessing whether voters are biased in their perceptions and evaluations of politicians’ communication styles. By manipulating politician gender and argument style, I assess, first, whether politicians incur backlash when violating gender-based stereotypes and, secondly, whether differential perceptions of the styles themselves explain this backlash. I find that style usage has important consequences for how voters evaluate politicians but that this is not gendered. These results have important implications, as they suggest that women politicians may not need to conform to stereotype-expected behaviours in order to receive positive voter evaluations.

02 成年早期的经济经历与民主支持的形成

【题目】

Early-Adulthood Economic Experiences and the Formation of Democratic Support

【作者】

Suthan Krishnarajan , Jonathan Doucette and David Andersen

【摘要】

早年的经济经历会影响晚年对政权的支持吗？近期经济表现对政权支持率的影响已被广泛研究，但个人一生的经济经历对政权支持率的持久影响仍未得到探讨。我们认为，无论是民主政体还是专制政体，成年早期（即 18 岁至 28 岁）的经济经历都会被植入人们的记忆，并成为他们日后民主支持的重要线索。在民主国家经济表现良好的环境中生活过的人，其一生中大部分时间的民主支持率都会上升，而在专制国家经济表现良好的环境中生活过的人，其一生中大部分时间的民主支持率都会下降。我们利用 1994 年至 2015 年在 97 个国家进行的关于民主支持率的广泛调查数据，发现这些命题得到了支持，证明了成年早期的经济经历对民主支持率具有强烈、稳健和持久的影响，而这种影响取决于当时的制度。

Do economic experiences early in life affect regime support later in life? Effects of recent economic performance on regime support are extensively studied, but lasting effects of individual-level economic experiences across the lifespan remain unexplored. We argue that in democracies and autocracies alike, economic experiences in early adulthood (that is, age eighteen to twenty-eight) are wired into people’s memories and become important cues for their democratic support later in life. Having lived in a wellperforming economy in a democracy increases democratic support throughout most of people’s lives, whereas having lived in a well-performing economy in an autocracy decreases democratic support throughout most of people’s lives. Using extensive survey data on support for democracy covering ninety-seven countries from 1994 to 2015, we find support for these propositions, demonstrating that economic experiences in early adulthood, conditional on the regime in place at the time, have strong, robust and lasting effects on democratic support.

03 后工业调整时期的代际社会流动、政治社会化和对左翼的支持

【题目】

Intergenerational Social Mobility, Political Socialization and Support for the Left under Post-industrial Realignment

【作者】

Macarena Ares and Mathilde M. van Ditmars

【摘要】

本文研究了在后工业时代选举调整和职业转型的背景下，原生阶级和代际社会流动性如何影响新老核心左翼选民对左翼政党的支持。我们调查了英国、德国和瑞士各代选民的原生阶级政治社会化遗留问题。我们证明，当代中产阶级左翼支持的部分原因是工业阶级政党结盟下的社会化遗留问题，因为许多工人阶级出身的人--传统的左翼选区--与他们的父辈有着不同的（后工业时代）阶级定位。生产工人出身的这些持久影响在年轻一代中以及在更加重新组合的环境中都比较弱。我们的研究结果表明，如果只考虑受访者的目的地阶级，就会低估原籍阶级的政治社会化的相关性，从而高估选举的调整。然而，这些过去的产业结盟目前是无与伦比的，因为较新的左翼选区（尚未）表现出类似的遗产。

This article investigates how class of origin and intergenerational social mobility impact left-wing party support among new and old core left-wing electorates in the context of post-industrial electoral realignment and occupational transformation. We investigate the remaining legacy of political socialization in class of origin across generations of voters in the UK, Germany and Switzerland. We demonstrate that part of the contemporary middle-class left-wing support is a legacy of socialization under industrial class–party alignments, as many individuals from working-class backgrounds – traditional left-wing constituencies – have a different (post-industrial) class location than their parents. These enduring effects of production worker roots are weaker among younger generations and in more realigned contexts. Our findings imply that exclusively considering respondents’ destination class underestimates the relevance of political socialization in class of origin, thereby overestimating electoral realignment. However, these past industrial alignments are currently unparalleled, as newer left-wing constituencies do not (yet) demonstrate similar legacies.

04 国际社会对本土非国家行为者生存的影响 

【题目】

International Influences on the Survival of Territorial Non-state Actors

【作者】

Michael R. Kenwick1 and Douglas Lemke

【摘要】

领土争夺者是控制着有人居住的领土，但其主权未得到承认的政治实体。它们重塑公认边界，形成权力争夺区，对东道国的生存构成威胁。国家有强烈的动机消灭它们，但它们却依然存在--发展中国家的边界内平均有三个领土争夺者。了解领土争夺者为何生存以及如何消亡，是国家治理研究中的一个重要难题。国际力量为这些看似国内的过程提供了重要的解释（如果被忽视的话）。首先，我们认为，国际对手破坏了国家通过和平谈判或武力重新整合领土争夺者的能力，从而使领土争夺者长期存在。其次，国际人权条约制度提供了一种机制，使领土争夺者能够获得潜在盟友的支持，从而增强国家通过和平重返社会进程解决这些争端的意愿和能力。

Territorial contenders are political entities that control populated territories but lack recognition as sovereigns. They pose existential threats to their host states by reshaping recognized borders and generating zones of contested authority. States have strong incentives to eliminate them, and yet they persist—developing countries host an average of three territorial contenders within their borders. Understanding why territorial contenders survive and how they die is a critical puzzle in the study of state making. International forces offer important, if overlooked, explanations for these seemingly domestic processes. First, we argue that international rivals perpetuate the existence of territorial contenders by undermining a state’s ability to reintegrate them through peaceful negotiations or by force. Secondly, the international human rights treaty regime provides a mechanism by which territorial contenders can galvanize support from potential allies, increasing a state’s willingness and ability to resolve these disputes through peaceful reintegration processes.

05 分裂主义和机构

【题目】

Irredentism and Institutions

【作者】

Christopher Hale1 and David Siroky

【摘要】

为什么国家会实行领土收复主义？本文在前人研究的基础上，提出了一个具有理性主义微观基础的新理论，解释了民主政体和独裁政体中精英和公民支持领土归属主义的动机。我们的模型表明，当政治精英能够以最低的税率向渴望获得私人物品、公共物品和福利转移的公民提供特定的组合时，就更有可能出现领土归属主义。由此可以预测，在多数民主选举制度和军事独裁政权中最有可能出现领土归属主义，而在比例选举制度和一党独裁政权中最不可能出现领土归属主义。我们使用了一个全面的数据集，涵盖了 1946 年至 2014 年间所有已观察到的和潜在的领土归属主义案例，对这些预期进行了检验并找到了支持性证据。

Why do states engage in irredentism? Expanding on previous scholarship, this article advances a new theory with rationalist microfoundations that accounts for the incentives of both elites and citizens to support irredentism in democracies and dictatorships. Our model suggests irredentism is more likely when it enables political elites to provide a specific mix of private goods, public goods, and welfare transfers to citizens who desire them at the lowest tax rate. This leads to the prediction that irredentism is most likely in majoritarian democratic electoral systems and military dictatorships, and least likely in proportional electoral systems and single-party dictatorships. We test and find supportive evidence for these expectations using a comprehensive dataset covering all observed and potential irredentist cases from 1946 to 2014.

06 冲突态度的长期变化：动态视角

【题目】

Long-Term Change in Conflict Attitudes: A Dynamic Perspective

【作者】

Alon Yakter1 and Liran Harsgor

【摘要】

大量文献研究了暴力冲突中的公民如何应对冲突事件，尤其是暴力升级。然而，对这些态度变化的时间性研究仍然不足。我们认为，民众对暴力升级的反应通常是直接而短暂的，表明他们对人身威胁的短期情绪反应。然而，从长远来看，公众舆论更常受非暴力事件的影响，这些事件表明了对手的认知意图，反映了缓慢但更深层次的信念更新过程。我们通过对以色列整整二十年（2001-20 年）的综合月度数据进行动态分析，支持这一论点。我们发现，犹太人对巴以冲突态度的长期变化是随着暗示巴勒斯坦人倾向的非暴力事件，尤其是谈判失败和外群体领导层变化而发生的，而不是暴力程度。我们的研究结果强调了舆论时间动态的重要性，并表明文献中经常被忽视的非暴力事件在冲突背景下塑造长期态度方面发挥着突出作用。

A large literature examines how citizens in violent conflicts react to the conflict’s events, particularly violent escalations. Nevertheless, the temporal nature of these attitudinal changes remains under-studied. We suggest that popular reactions to greater violence are typically immediate but brief, indicating short-term emotional responses to physical threats. Over the longer term, however, public opinion is more commonly shaped by non-violent events signaling the adversary’s perceived intentions, reflecting slower but deeper belief-updating processes. We support this argument using dynamic analyses of comprehensive monthly data from Israel spanning two full decades (2001–20). Rather than violence levels, we find that long-term changes in Jewish attitudes on the Israeli–Palestinian conflict follow non-violent events implying Palestinian preferences, particularly failed negotiations and out-group leadership changes. Our findings underscore the importance of public opinion’s temporal dynamics and show that non-violent events, which are often overlooked in the literature, play a prominent role in shaping long-term attitudes in conflictual contexts.

07 衡量种族不平等：对现有跨国指数的评估 

【题目】

Measuring Ethnic Inequality: An Assessment of Extant Cross-National Indices

【作者】

Lasse Egendal Leipziger

【摘要】

本文对种族社会经济不平等的跨国衡量标准进行了评估。文章表明，这些测量方法在经验范围、概念化、测量和汇总方面存在重要差异。尽管在测量种族不平等方面取得了重大进展，但所有测量方法都存在不足之处，如覆盖范围有限和有偏差，以及基础数据源造成的测量误差。此外，概念上相似的测量方法之间的经验趋同性非常低：一些测量方法没有显示出协方差，甚至是负协方差。四项复制研究也表明，现存的种族不平等测量方法一般不可互换。因此，学者们在使用任何一种措施之前，都应考虑到本评估中强调的各种特征。基于这一结论，文章提出了改进现有测量方法和开发新测量方法的多项建议。

This article offers an evaluation of cross-national measures of ethnic socio-economic inequality. It demonstrates that the measures differ in important ways regarding empirical scope, conceptualization, measurement and aggregation. Despite significant advances in the measurement of ethnic inequality, all measures have shortcomings, such as limited and biased coverage, as well as measurement error from the underlying data sources. Moreover, the empirical convergence between conceptually similar measures is strikingly low: some of the measures show no or even negative covariation. Four replication studies also indicate that extant measures of ethnic inequality are generally not interchangeable. Scholars should therefore take the various features highlighted in this evaluation into account before employing any of them. Based on this conclusion, the article offers multiple suggestions for improving existing measures and developing new ones.

08 内战期间的网络竞争与平民目标 

【题目】

Network Competition and Civilian Targeting during Civil Conflict

【作者】

Cassy Dorff1, Max Gallop and Shahryar Minhas

【摘要】

本文以最近的文献发展为基础，探讨了国内冲突研究中的一个突出问题：什么原因导致了针对平民的暴力行为？我们使用了一个新颖的计算模型来研究网络环境下受害的战略动机；该模型包含了平民的战略行为。我们认为，无论冲突的总体强度或参与者总数如何，网络竞争激烈的冲突（任何两个参与者之间都更有可能发生冲突）都会导致更高的平民受害率。我们利用事件数据生成冲突强度和网络密度的衡量指标，在跨国环境中检验了我们的理论。实证分析支持我们模型的发现，即网络竞争程度高的冲突体系与针对平民的暴力程度较高相关联。

Building on recent developments in the literature, this article addresses a prominent research question in the study of civil conflict: what explains violence against civilians? We use a novel computational model to investigate the strategic incentives for victimization in a network setting; one that incorporates civilians’ strategic behavior. We argue that conflicts with high network competition—where conflict between any two actors is more likely—lead to higher rates of civilian victimization, irrespective of the conflict’s overall intensity or total number of actors. We test our theory in a cross-national setting using event data to generate measures of both conflict intensity and network density. Empirical analysis supports our model’s finding that conflict systems with high levels of network competition are associated with a higher level of violence against the civilian population.

09 福利皇后 "和 "贫穷的卡里娜"：福利金领取者的社会建构、应得信息和心理健康

【题目】

Of ‘Welfare Queens’ and ‘Poor Carinas’: Social Constructions, Deservingness Messaging and the Mental Health of Welfare Clients

【作者】

Martin Baekgaard, Pamela Herd and Donald P. Moynihan

【摘要】

政客们将福利领取者描述为不值得帮助的人，而媒体则将这种描述扩大化。这些信息旨在影响大众舆论，但对领取福利金的目标人群有何影响？我们测试了 "应得 "信息是否会影响福利领取者的心理健康。为此，我们利用了一个准实验，即在丹麦一名福利金领取者成为全国辩论的主题后，应得信息发生了巨大变化，我们利用了有关其他福利金领取者随后消费抗抑郁药的详细行政数据。我们发现有证据表明，福利金领取者在受到 "应得 "信息的影响后，精神健康状况恶化，这反映在批评性访谈播出后的几周内，抗抑郁药物的使用量增加了 1.2 个百分点。应得信息尤其影响到有心理健康问题史的弱势群体。

Politicians engage in, and the media amplifies, social constructions of welfare recipients as undeserving. Such messaging seeks to influence mass public opinion, but what are the effects on the target population receiving welfare benefits? We test if deservingness messaging affects welfare recipients’ mental health. To do so, we exploit a quasi-experiment entailing a dramatic shift in deservingness messaging after a welfare recipient in Denmark became the subject of a national debate, utilizing detailed administrative data on the ensuing consumption of antidepressants by other welfare recipients. We find evidence that welfare recipients experienced worse mental health outcomes after being exposed to deservingness messaging, reflected in a 1.2-percentage-point increase in the use of antidepressants in the weeks following the airing of a critical interview. Deservingness messaging particularly affected more vulnerable groups who had a history of mental health problems.

10 政治理解 

【题目】

Political Understanding

【作者】

Maxime Lepoutre

【摘要】

民意研究表明，选民接受了许多关于政治的虚假信息。这一观察结果被广泛认为对民主--尤其是参与式民主的理想--造成了困扰。我认为，这种有影响力的说法存在缺陷，因为它误解了政治理解的本质。通过对科学建模的哲学研究，我证明了在一个人的政治现实模型中接受谬误是与之相容的--事实上可以积极地增进--一个人对该现实的理解。因此，观察到选民接受许多政治谬误并不一定说明他们缺乏政治理解。然后，我谈到了三点担忧：选民一般无法参与这种政治建模；政治建模掩盖了对政治理解至关重要的事实；成功的政治建模需要知道自己的模型包含谬误。我的回答揭示了我们今后应如何衡量政治无知，并强调了参与式民主的长期重要性。

Public opinion research has shown that voters accept many falsehoods about politics. This observation is widely considered troubling for democracy – and especially participatory ideals of democracy. I argue that this influential narrative is nevertheless flawed because it misunderstands the nature of political understanding. Drawing on philosophical examinations of scientific modelling, I demonstrate that accepting falsehoods within one’s model of political reality is compatible with – and indeed can positively enhance – one’s understanding of that reality. Thus, the observation that voters accept many political falsehoods does not necessarily establish that they lack political understanding. I then address three worries: that voters cannot generally engage in such political modelling; that political modelling obscures facts that are crucial to political understanding; and that successful political modelling would require knowing that one’s model contains falsehoods. My responses reveal how, going forward, we should measure political ignorance, and they highlight the standing importance of participatory democracy

11 宣扬政治：政治化如何削弱中东的宗教权威 

【题目】

Preaching Politics: How Politicization Undermines Religious Authority in the Middle East

【作者】

Scott Williamson1, A. Kadir Yildirim, Sharan Grewal and Mirjam Kuenkler

【摘要】

越来越多的研究表明，基督教宗教领袖参与政治会削弱宗教的社会影响力。这些政治化的负面影响是否也会延伸到伊斯兰教？与将伊斯兰教描述为天生政治化的学术和流行说法相反，我们认为穆斯林宗教领袖参与政治会削弱他们的宗教权威。我们对 11 个中东国家的 12,000 多名逊尼派穆斯林受访者进行了调查，通过联合实验验证了这一论点。结果显示，与政治问题或政治上活跃的宗教运动的联系会降低穆斯林神职人员的宗教权威，包括在赞同神职人员政治观点的受访者中。文章的研究结果揭示了中东穆斯林如何理解宗教与政治之间的关系，有助于人们更广泛地理解政治化的宗教领袖如何对宗教产生负面影响。

A growing body of research demonstrates that political involvement by Christian religious leaders can undermine the religion’s social influence. Do these negative consequences of politicization also extend to Islam? Contrary to scholarly and popular accounts that describe Islam as inherently political, we argue that Muslim religious leaders will weaken their religious authority when they engage with politics. We test this argument with a conjoint experiment implemented on a survey of more than 12,000 Sunni Muslim respondents in eleven Middle Eastern countries. The results show that connections to political issues or politically active religious movements decrease the perceived religious authority of Muslim clerics, including among respondents who approve of the clerics’ political views. The article’s findings shed light on how Muslims in the Middle East understand the relationship between religion and politics, and they contribute more broadly to understanding of how politicized religious leaders can have negative repercussions for religion.

12 公众对提供域外环境和社会公益物的需求 

【题目】

Public Demand for Extraterritorial Environmental and Social Public Goods Provision

【作者】

Lukas Rudolph1, Dennis Kolcava and Thomas Bernauer

【摘要】

近几十年来，跨国商业活动急剧增加，与此同时，如何应对其对社会和环境的影响也引起了争议。迄今为止，最突出的政策应对措施是制定国际准则。我们研究了一个高收入国家的公民在多大程度上愿意约束企业改善其他国家的环境和社会条件，以及为什么愿意约束企业改善其他国家的环境和社会条件。我们利用瑞士的一次真实全民公决，对具有代表性的选民样本（N = 3,010）进行选择和小插曲实验，研究公众对此类监管的需求。我们的研究结果表明，公民偏好严格的单边规则（一般的社会和环境问题会导致偏好发生很大变化），同时正确评估了这些规则的后果。此外，接触国际规范会增加对监管的需求。这些研究结果突出表明，民主问责可以成为一种机制，促使国家为集体利益做出贡献，即使这并不符合国家的经济利益；而公民对相关国际规范的了解可以加强这种机制。

Vastly increased transnational business activity in recent decades has been accompanied by controversy over how to cope with its social and environmental impacts. The most prominent policy response thus far consists of international guidelines. We investigate to what extent and why citizens in a high-income country are willing to restrain companies to improve environmental and social conditions in other countries. Exploiting a real-world referendum in Switzerland, we use choice and vignette experiments with a representative sample of voters (N = 3,010) to study public demand for such regulation. Our results show that citizens prefer strict and unilateral rules (with a substantial variation of preferences by general social and environmental concern) while correctly assessing their consequences. Moreover, exposure to international norms increases demand for regulation. These findings highlight that democratic accountability can be a mechanism that motivates states to contribute to collective goods even if not in their economic interest and that awareness of relevant international norms among citizens can enhance this mechanism.

13 以公平条件让弱势人群融入居住环境

【题目】

Residential Integration on Fair Terms for the Disadvantaged

【作者】

Hwa Young Kim and Andrew Walton

【摘要】

本文为有关居住隔离及其与不平等关系的规范性辩论做出了贡献。文章捍卫了文献中经常被忽视的一个立场：即在某些情况下，优势人群迁往劣势人群居住的做法有利于促进居住融合。本报告在阐述这一观点时还与其他三种观点进行了对话。对于那些主张通过重新分配来解决居住隔离的不平等问题的人，它为融合辩护，认为融合是解决维持不公正的社会和政治因素的一种手段。通过强调这种做法给弱势群体带来的负担和对文化同化的要求，它对那些为将弱势群体迁移到优势地区而辩护的人提出了挑战。它考虑了人们对优势群体搬迁到劣势群体所在地区会带来贵族化问题的担忧。报告认为，这些担忧虽然在某些情况下很重要，但并非在所有此类情况下都会出现。

This article contributes to normative debates about residential segregation and its relationship to inequality. It defends a position often disregarded in literature: that there is merit to advancing residential integration through some scenarios where advantaged individuals move to disadvantaged areas. It develops this case in dialogue with three other views. In relation to advocates of addressing the inequalities of residential segregation through redistribution, it defends integration as a means of tackling social and political factors that sustain injustice. It challenges those who defend relocating disadvantaged individuals to advantaged areas by highlighting the burdens and demand for cultural assimilation this imposes on the disadvantaged. It considers the worry that advantaged individuals relocating to disadvantaged areas harbours the problematic features of gentrification. It responds that these concerns, while important in some cases, do not arise in all scenarios of this kind.

14 塑造选举结果：印度议会选举中的内部和反制度暴力

【题目】

Shaping Electoral Outcomes: Intra- and Anti-systemic Violence in Indian Assembly Elections

【作者】

Imke Harbers1, Cécile Richetta and Enrike van Wingerden

【摘要】

反对民主制度的反制度行为者以及通过选举过程争夺权力的人都会实施选举暴力。尽管采取暴力手段的动机各不相同，但我们并不知道体制内暴力和反体制暴力在效果上是否存在差异。印度是一个既有全国性选举又有持续政治暴力的国家，我们以印度的邦一级选举为重点，证明这种区别对于理解选举暴力的空间模式和对选举结果的影响至关重要。基于 1985 年至 2008 年立法议会选举中暴力事件的原始数据集，我们发现两种手段都会在总体上抑制投票率，但反系统暴力的影响更大。系统内暴力不仅似乎更有选择性，因为它更有可能发生在现任者属于州级反对党的选区，而且还能为控制州政府的政党带来选举利益。

Electoral violence is perpetrated by anti-systemic actors opposed to the democratic system, as well as by those vying for power through the electoral process. Even though the motivations for violent tactics are distinct, we do not know whether intra- and anti-systemic violence differ in their effects. Focusing on state-level elections in India – a country that combines nationwide elections with persistent political violence – we demonstrate that the distinction is crucial for understanding spatial patterns of electoral violence and effects on election outcomes. Based on an original dataset of violence in legislative assembly elections between 1985 and 2008, we show that both tactics depress turnout overall but that the effect is larger for anti-systemic violence. Intra-systemic violence not only appears to be more selectively targeted, as it is more likely to occur in constituencies where the incumbent belongs to the state-level opposition, but also generates electoral benefits for the party in control of state government.

15 民主不满情绪的地理分布

【题目】

The Geography of Democratic Discontent

【作者】

Cameron Ballard-Rosa1, Allison Carnegie and Bryan Schonfeld

【摘要】

了解支持民主的决定因素仍然是国际政治经济学和比较政治经济学中许多难题的核心。在这些文献中，一个核心但仍未解决的问题是，在什么条件下这种支持会消失。为了回答这个问题，本文将重点放在分配政治上：由于民主领导人拥有有限的预算，但又需要赢得选举，因此他们往往会将资源向一个具有政治影响力的部门倾斜，从而导致在选举中被忽视的人群对民主持更消极的态度。我们特别指出，政府往往面临一个关键的政治权衡：是将资源导向农业部门，还是鼓励城市发展。在用一个正式模型提出这一论点后，我们详细介绍了历史上的一些情况，以证实模型中确定的机制。最后，我们提供了跨国量化证据，证明当政府不成比例地将资源分配给其他部门时，地域人口对民主的不满会增加。

Understanding the determinants of support for democracy remains at the heart of many puzzles in international and comparative political economy. A central but still unresolved topic in this literature is the conditions under which such support dissipates. To answer this question, this article focuses on distributional politics: since democratic leaders possess limited budgets but need to win elections, they often skew resources toward one politically influential sector, leading to more negative attitudes toward democracy among electorally ignored populations. In particular, we argue that governments often face a key political trade-off: whether to direct resources to the agricultural sector or to encourage urban development. After developing this argument in a formal model, we detail historical accounts that substantiate the mechanisms identified in the model. Finally, we provide cross-national quantitative evidence that discontent with democracy increases among geographic populations when governments disproportionately distribute resources toward other sectors.

16 肃清还是不肃清？独裁政权中精英清洗的个人层面定量分析 

【题目】

To Purge or Not to Purge? An Individual-Level Quantitative Analysis of Elite Purges in Dictatorships

【作者】

Edward Goldring1 and Austin S. Matthews

【摘要】

为什么独裁者要清除特定的精英而不是其他人？独裁者又为何以特定方式清除这些精英？研究这些相关问题不仅有助于我们理解独裁者如何在其政权中保留足够的能力以减轻民众和外国威胁，还有助于我们理解独裁者如何消除精英威胁。独裁者更有可能清除第一代精英，他们更有权势，因为他们能以强势地位谈判自己的角色，并拥有与其他精英之间宝贵的纵向和横向联系。此外，独裁者倾向于监禁被清洗的第一代精英--而不是处决、流放或直接清除--以避免其他精英的报复或被清洗的精英继续挑拨离间。我们从 1922 年至 2020 年 16 个政权的专制精英的新数据中找到了对我们预测的经验支持。

Why do dictators purge specific elites but not others? And why do dictators purge these elites in certain ways? Examining these related questions helps us understand not only how dictators retain sufficient competence in their regimes to alleviate popular and foreign threats, but also how dictators nullify elite threats. Dictators are more likely to purge first-generation elites, who are more powerful because they can negotiate their role from a position of strength and possess valuable vertical and horizontal linkages with other elites. Further, dictators tend to imprison purged first-generation elites – rather than execute, exile or simply remove them – to avoid retaliation from other elites or the purged elite continuing to sow discord. We find empirical support for our predictions from novel data on autocratic elites in 16 regimes from 1922 to 2020.

17 谁值得欧洲声援？COVID-19 期间受援国特征如何影响公众对国际医疗和财政援助的支持 

【题目】

Who Deserves European Solidarity? How Recipient Characteristics Shaped Public Support for International Medical and Financial Aid during COVID-19

【作者】

Max Heermann , Sebastian Koos and Dirk Leuffen

【摘要】

国际团结对于应对全球危机是不可或缺的；然而，团结常常受到公众舆论的制约。过去的研究探讨了捐助方中哪些人愿意支持欧洲和国际援助。然而，我们对受援方认为谁应该得到声援却知之甚少。本文认为，潜在捐助方会考虑具体情况以及将他们与受援方联系在一起的关系特征。通过因子调查实验，我们分析了在 COVID-19 大流行期间德国公众对国际医疗和财政援助的支持。我们的研究结果表明，受援国的情境需求和控制，以及政治团体标准，即团体成员资格、对共同价值观的坚持和互惠，在解释公众对援助的支持方面发挥了至关重要的作用。结果具有重要的政策含义：在援助国方面，错误归因框架很重要；在受援国方面，遵守社区规范是接受援助的关键。

International solidarity is indispensable for coping with global crises; however, solidarity is frequently constrained by public opinion. Past research has examined who, on the donor side, is willing to support European and international aid. However, we know less about who, on the recipient side, is perceived to deserve solidarity. The article argues that potential donors consider situational circumstances and those relational features that link them to the recipients. Using factorial survey experiments, we analyse public support for international medical and financial aid in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results show that recipient countries’ situational need and control, as well as political community criteria, namely, group membership, adherence to shared values and reciprocity, played a crucial role in explaining public support for aid. Important policy implications result: on the donor side, fault-attribution frames matter; on the recipient side, honouring community norms is key to receiving aid.

18 党派人士为何不制裁选举舞弊行为？ 

【题目】

Why Don’t Partisans Sanction Electoral Malpractice?

【作者】

Laurits F. Aarslew

【摘要】

党派成员很少在投票时惩罚自己的政党违反民主准则或在选举中作弊。然而，我们对其背后的原因知之甚少。我研究了党派人士为何很少制裁党内舞弊行为。通过在丹麦和墨西哥进行预先登记的调查实验，我研究了党派人士在选举舞弊事件曝光后调整观点的不同步骤，并区分了两种实质上不同的解释。是普遍存在的偏见阻碍了党派成员将党内弊端视为非法？或者，党派成员在了解到舞弊行为时是否准确地更新了自己的观点，但没有投反对党的票？分析表明，党派成员在评价舞弊行为时不会采用双重标准。然而，尽管党派成员会惩罚党内的渎职行为，但他们对反对党的评价却很低，即使揭露了渎职行为也不会改变他们的想法。这些发现有助于我们了解党派人士如何看待选举舞弊和更广泛的政治渎职行为。

Partisans rarely punish their party at the polls for violating democratic norms or cheating in elections. However, we know little about the underlying reasons. I examine why partisans rarely sanction in-party malpractice. Using pre-registered survey experiments in Denmark and Mexico, I examine the different steps in how partisans adjust their views in response to revelations of electoral malpractice and distinguish between two substantively different explanations. Do pervasive biases prevent partisans from viewing in-party malpractice as illegitimate? Or, do partisans accurately update their views when learning about malpractice but refrain from voting against their party? The analysis demonstrates that partisans do not apply double standards when evaluating malpractice. However, although partisans punish in-party malpractice, they hold opposing parties in such low esteem that even revelations of malpractice do not change their minds. These findings contribute to our understanding of how partisans think about electoral malpractice and political malfeasance more broadly.

翻  译：聂凯巍 石寒冰

校  对：石寒冰

相关阅读

编辑：翟晓茗

一审：聂凯巍

二审：大    兰

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